COVID-19 vaccine supply chain: addressing complexity through simulation modelling

By Pietro Negri and Elisa Panzeri

COVID-19 vaccine supply chain: addressing complexity through simulation modelling

Written by: Pietro Negri, Elisa Panzeri

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus 2 (CoV-2), was declared a ‘Public Health Emergency of International Concern’ by the World Health Organization (WHO) on January 30th, 2020 and a pandemic on March 11th, 2020.

This article presents a systems-level modeling aimed at informing time-critical decisions to make vaccines globally and equitably accessible. A vaccine that protects against the SARS-CoV-2 and stops community transmission is the most effective way to stop the pandemic.

Realigning the mismatch between supply and demand requires dynamic, responsive systems that integrate information around sales, production, storage, transportation, and procurement. A key performance indicator of vaccine supply chains is the continuous and uninterrupted availability of affordable products at the point of administration. Integrating real-world data into an automated learning system is particularly important to continually enhance models and informed decisions using evidence generated over time.